Risk

---
name: risk
multi_ticker_semantics: single_target
description: Risk analysis, regulatory risk assessment, competitive risk, macro risk, technology risk, litigation risk, financial risk assessment, enterprise risk, operational risk, geopolitical risk exposure
essentials_modes: [general-risk-factors-identification-assessment, technology-disruption-risk-analysis, regulatory-compliance-risk-assessment]
temporal_scope:
 default_quarters: 4
 max_quarters: 10
 description: "Typical lookback: 4 quarters, max: 10"
allowed_tools:
 - search_companies
 - search_xbrl_facts
 - search_documents
 - search_sec_filings
 - get_company_financials
 - list_coverage
 - read_source_outline
 - read_source_deep_outline
 - list_xbrl_concepts
 - read_source_pages
 - search_keyword_in_source
 - search_knowledge_entries
 - get_knowledge_entry
 - search_by_analogue
 - get_company_profile
 - search_earnings_calendar
retrieval_scope: unstructured_document_search
min_tool_diversity: 10
---

<!-- analog: thesis-tracker -->

## Preflight


Run canonical pre-flight per `contracts/preflight.md`.

Include the `X-Agentii-Trace` header on every tool call per `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md` — carry the `_run_id` from your first tool result and name yourself (and your parent, if you were spawned).
## Triggers

- analyze risk analysis
- run risk analysis analysis
- produce risk analysis report
- risk analysis breakdown
- risk analysis deep dive
- build a risk analysis
- assess risk analysis
- quantify risk analysis
- compare risk analysis across peers
- review risk analysis for
- generate risk analysis on
- risk analysis for investment decision

## Defaults

| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| lookback_quarters | 4 | Historical data window — matches `temporal_scope.default_quarters` |
| include_peers | false | Whether to surface a peer comparison block |

## Methodology

### Retrieval Scope

This skill performs unstructured document search at scale (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K filings and earnings call transcripts spanning multiple fiscal periods). The three-layer agent-use-ready retrieval protocol (Document Discovery → Page Map → Deep Read) applies to all unstructured document search at scale.

### Retrieval Strategy

Follow the retrieval strategy decision tree in `contracts/retrieval.md`. This skill uses:
- Branch (a) for structured financial metrics via `search_xbrl_facts` with `list_xbrl_concepts` pre-condition for unfamiliar concepts.
- Branch (c) for single-period document queries via direct `read_source_outline` → `read_source_pages`.
- Branch (d) for simple lookups via `get_company_profile` / `search_earnings_calendar`.

**Layer 1 `secondary_label` allowlist **: prefer `?secondary_labels=other_events_8_01` to surface risk-event 8-Ks (litigation, regulatory action, cyber incidents) before Layer 2. Also score Layer 2 pages whose `labels.general.keywords` contain "risk factors" entity terms.

**Read before you quote.** A page's `description` is **platform-generated** — it is never the issuer's
words and must never be quoted as the filing's. When a description identifies a relevant page,
`read_source_pages` that page and quote its `page_content`. **The description is a pointer, not a
source**: a citation written from one is the fabricated quote this skill's output standard exists to
prevent (`contracts/retrieval.md` § *Three-Layer Document Protocol*).

### Temporal Scope

Default: 4 fiscal quarters (max 8). Risk analysis: trailing 4 quarters for near-term risk exposure + forward indicators

### Tool Allowlist

See frontmatter `allowed_tools`.

### Protocol

This skill delivers analyst-grade output via 4 addressable mode(s); invoke with `--mode=<slug>` / `--modes=<slug1>,<slug2>` / `--mode=all` (see [Mode syntax](../../../../docs/commands/MODE_SYNTAX.md). The default invocation (no flag) runs the `essentials_modes` subset declared in this skill's frontmatter.

### Analyst Modes

This skill exposes addressable analysis modes (`--mode=<slug>` / `--modes=<s1>,<s2>` / `--mode=all`; see [Mode syntax](../../../../docs/commands/MODE_SYNTAX.md)). The full mode definitions and their output templates live in `references/modes.md`. The default invocation runs the essentials subset.

## Tool Fallbacks

Per-tool failure modes and fallback actions are tabulated in `references/tool-fallbacks.md`.

## Output File

Write the final deliverable to `{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_risk_risk-assessment.md` .

## Output Structure

The deliverable is a structured markdown report written to the path in `## Output File`. Full section-by-section template (headings, tables, and field definitions) lives in `references/output-structure.md`. Required elements:

1. **Executive Summary** — headline conclusions (≤200 words).
2. **Core analysis sections** — per this skill's methodology and analyst modes.
3. **Data classification** — tag findings `[FACT]` / `[DEDUCTED]` / `[VIEW]` per `contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md`.
4. **Coverage Gaps & Citations** — coverage gaps are required; inline `/v/` citations are the citation surface (immediately after each fact). A bottom roll-up index is optional, and where kept it must not repeat a link the prose already carries.
5. **Output frontmatter** — emit the FR-090 structured block per `contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md`.

**Citations & memory**: follow `contracts/citation-and-memory.md` — ≥1 citation per 200 words; every material fact, table row, and metric is immediately followed by its inline clickable `https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N}` link; citations belong inline, a bottom roll-up index is optional and never a repeat of a link already given; the closing TUI reply includes a compact **Key Citations** list (headline 5–10 facts) of clickable `/v/` URLs; and append the run to `agentii.md` per `contracts/agentii-md-schema.md`.

## Memory & Snapshot

- **Memory load** (pre-flight): load prior workspace context for the ticker before retrieval — see `contracts/memory-load.md`.
- **Structured output frontmatter**: emit the FR-090 block (`key_metrics`, `conclusions`, `facts_count`, `deducted_count`, `views_count`, `citation_count`) per `contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md`.
- **Snapshot synthesis**: after writing the deliverable, update the two-tier snapshot and classify findings as `[FACT]`/`[DEDUCTED]`/`[VIEW]` — see `contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md`.
- **Session archival**: record the run under `sessions/{YYYY-MM-DD}/` and update `sessions/INDEX.md` per `contracts/session-format.md`.

## Final Summary (TUI)

End the closing chat reply with the summary shape in `contracts/citation-and-memory.md` — Citation Placement Policy item 3: title · key conclusions · key metrics · Executive Summary · **Key Citations** (the headline 5–10 facts, each a clickable `https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N}` link), so the user can cmd+click straight to the exact SEC page without opening the file.

## Error Handling

| Failure Mode | Detection | Action | User-Facing Message |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missing data | Data API returns empty result set | Widen date range and retry once | "No data available for {ticker} in requested window." |
| Partial data | Data API returns <80% expected records | Proceed with coverage gaps section | "Analysis based on partial data; see Coverage Gaps section." |
| Sector mismatch | Peer sector != target sector | Filter out mismatched peers | "Removed {n} peer(s) due to sector mismatch." |
| Insufficient history | Ticker <3 years on public markets | Downgrade to limited-history profile | "Limited historical data; analysis adjusted accordingly." |
| MCP unreachable | Preflight probe fails | Halt with actionable error | "agentii data plane unreachable; check connection." |