Discovery Opportunity Sizing

---
name: discovery-opportunity-sizing
description: "Bottom-up TAM math with explicit assumptions anyone can audit."
---
# Size opportunities honestly

> Bottom-up TAM math with explicit assumptions anyone can audit.

**Track:** 📋 Product Management · **Domain:** Discovery & Research · **Level:** intermediate · **~30 min**

**Who this is for:** Product Managers, Product Owners, Founders, Product Analysts

## When to Use This Skill

Bottom-up TAM math with explicit assumptions anyone can audit.
Use it whenever a matching task appears in conversation — the agent loads these instructions on demand.

## Steps

1. Build bottom-up: segments × reach rate × conversion × price
2. List every assumption with source and confidence rating
3. Cross-check with one independent method (top-down or value-based)
4. Present ranges with sensitivity on the two shakiest assumptions
5. Separate 'market exists' from 'we can reach them' explicitly
6. Date-stamp the analysis; markets move

## Common Pitfalls

- 1% of China logic presented as sizing
- Confusing total market with reachable segment

## Commands

**Install with skills CLI**
```bash
npx skills add aniruddhaadak80/skills --skill discovery-opportunity-sizing
```

**Install globally**
```bash
npx skills add aniruddhaadak80/skills --skill discovery-opportunity-sizing -g
```

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Part of [aniruddhaadak80/skills](https://github.com/aniruddhaadak80/skills) · Browse all at https://skills.sh/aniruddhaadak80/skills