Cash Flow Forecast

---
name: cash-flow-forecast
description: Forecast organizational cash inflows, outflows, timing, committed obligations, scenarios, and liquidity headroom from current financial evidence without presenting uncertain future amounts as guaranteed.
---
# Cash-Flow Forecast

Use when operations need a forward view of expected cash movement and timing.

## Procedure
1. Define the entity or program, forecast horizon, granularity, currency, opening cash balance, and authoritative data sources.
2. Separate posted actuals, committed obligations, recurring scheduled items, expected but uncertain payments, and scenario assumptions.
3. Forecast inflows by expected receipt timing rather than invoice date alone and model collection uncertainty where material.
4. Forecast payroll, vendors, infrastructure, taxes, debt or financing, projects, and other outflows according to actual payment timing and known commitments.
5. Build base, downside, and upside scenarios around the few uncertain inputs that most affect liquidity.
6. Reconcile forecast periods to posted actuals as they close and measure forecast error rather than rolling the model forward without learning.
7. Highlight minimum cash, timing gaps, concentration risk, and decision points requiring finance or leadership action.
8. Preserve assumption sources and dates so another operator can update the model without relying on memory.

## Decision rules
- Cash timing differs from accounting recognition and budget.
- Forecast uncertainty should be represented with scenarios or ranges.
- Do not treat an expected invoice payment as cash received until evidence supports it.
- Financing, tax, or accounting decisions belong to qualified owners.

## Quality gate
The forecast is ready when opening cash and actuals reconcile, future inflows and outflows carry explicit timing and confidence, key scenarios expose liquidity risk, assumptions are traceable, and decision owners can identify when action is required.