Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice.
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---
name: prediction-market-oracle-research
description: Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice.
metadata:
origin: ECC
---
# Prediction Market Oracle Research
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source,
forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
## Guardrails
- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the
implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run `llm-trading-agent-security`
before granting any write authority.
## Research Workflow
1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
4. Evaluate signal quality:
- liquidity
- spread
- market age
- trader/incentive concentration if known
- resolution authority
- geography or account restrictions
5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research,
customer data, or internal KPIs.
6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated
decision.
## Integration Patterns
- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a
threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
## Output Contract
Use:
1. decision context
2. market sources
3. signal quality
4. comparison sources
5. integration recommendation
6. caveats
End with:
```text
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
```
