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---
name: confidence-scoring
description: SOP for assigning calibrated confidence scores to causal claims based
on evidence quality and quantity.
execution: sop
---
# Confidence Scoring
Assign calibrated confidence scores to causal claims.
## Tool
CC file edit
## Protocol
1. Count supporting evidence (weighted by evidence hierarchy)
2. Count contradicting evidence (weighted similarly)
3. Calculate net confidence: support_weight / (support_weight + contradict_weight)
4. Adjust for mechanism plausibility (+0.1 if strong mechanism, -0.1 if no mechanism)
5. Update claim page frontmatter confidence field
## HARD-GATE
<HARD-GATE>
Confidence must be between 0.0 and 1.0. Must cite the evidence used in calculation.
</HARD-GATE>
## Yield
Returns: `{ claim: string, confidence: number, evidence_count: number }`